Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Refit Sodium (Na)
The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a reliable measure of mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease. It is used as a disease severity index to help prioritize allocation of organs for transplant. The MELD Na adds the sodium to the calculation to better categorize patients with cirrhois with mortality. The MELD refit attempts to better model prediction of mortality.
Formula :
4.258×Loge (bilirubinC) + 6.792×Loge (creatinineC) + 8.290×Loge (INRC) + 0.652 × (140−NaC) − 0.194×(140−NaC) × LogeBiliCC + 6.327
Explanation of Result :
3 Month Mortality :
MELD score > 40 : 71.3% mortality
MELD score 30–39 : 52.6% mortality
MELD score 20–29 : 19.6% mortality
MELD score 10–19 : 6.0% mortality
MELD score < 9 : 1.9% mortality
* Please verify all calculations prior to clinical use.
Reference(s) :
- Kamath PS, Kim WR; Advanced Liver Disease Study Group. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Hepatology. 2007 Mar;45(3):797-805. PMID: 17326206.
Abstract
The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%-20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue.
- Wiesner R, Edwards E, Freeman R, Harper A, Kim R, Kamath P, Kremers W, Lake J, Howard T, Merion RM, Wolfe RA, Krom R; United Network for Organ Sharing Liver Disease Severity Score Committee. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers. Gastroenterology. 2003 Jan;124(1):91-6. PMID: 12512033.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
A consensus has been reached that liver donor allocation should be based primarily on liver disease severity and that waiting time should not be a major determining factor. Our aim was to assess the capability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to correctly rank potential liver recipients according to their severity of liver disease and mortality risk on the OPTN liver waiting list.
METHODS:
The MELD model predicts liver disease severity based on serum creatinine, serum total bilirubin, and INR and has been shown to be useful in predicting mortality in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. In this study, we prospectively applied the MELD score to estimate 3-month mortality to 3437 adult liver transplant candidates with chronic liver disease who were added to the OPTN waiting list at 2A or 2B status between November, 1999, and December, 2001.
RESULTS:
In this study cohort with chronic liver disease, 412 (12%) died during the 3-month follow-up period. Waiting list mortality increased directly in proportion to the listing MELD score. Patients having a MELD score <9 experienced a 1.9% mortality, whereas patients having a MELD score > or =40 had a mortality rate of 71.3%. Using the c-statistic with 3-month mortality as the end point, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the MELD score was 0.83 compared with 0.76 for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS:
These data suggest that the MELD score is able to accurately predict 3-month mortality among patients with chronic liver disease on the liver waiting list and can be applied for allocation of donor livers.
- Kim WR, Biggins SW, Kremers WK, Wiesner RH, Kamath PS, Benson JT, Edwards E, Therneau TM. Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list. N Engl J Med. 2008 Sep 4;359(10):1018-26. PMID: 18768945.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Under the current liver-transplantation policy, donor organs are offered to patients with the highest risk of death.
METHODS:
Using data derived from all adult candidates for primary liver transplantation who were registered with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network in 2005 and 2006, we developed and validated a multivariable survival model to predict mortality at 90 days after registration. The predictor variable was the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with and without the addition of the serum sodium concentration. The MELD score (on a scale of 6 to 40, with higher values indicating more severe disease) is calculated on the basis of the serum bilirubin and creatinine concentrations and the international normalized ratio for the prothrombin time.
RESULTS:
In 2005, there were 6769 registrants, including 1781 who underwent liver transplantation and 422 who died within 90 days after registration on the waiting list. Both the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration were significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio for death, 1.21 per MELD point and 1.05 per 1-unit decrease in the serum sodium concentration for values between 125 and 140 mmol per liter; P<0.001 for both variables). Furthermore, a significant interaction was found between the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration, indicating that the effect of the serum sodium concentration was greater in patients with a low MELD score. When applied to the data from 2006, when 477 patients died within 3 months after registration on the waiting list, the combination of the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration was considerably higher than the MELD score alone in 32 patients who died (7%). Thus, assignment of priority according to the MELD score combined with the serum sodium concentration might have resulted in transplantation and prevented death.
CONCLUSIONS:
This population-wide study shows that the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration are important predictors of survival among candidates for liver transplantation.
2008 Massachusetts Medical Society
- Leise MD, Kim WR, Kremers WK, Larson JJ, Benson JT, Therneau TM. A revised model for end-stage liver disease optimizes prediction of mortality among patients awaiting liver transplantation. Gastroenterology. 2011 Jun;140(7):1952-60. PMID: 21334338.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was originally developed based on data from patients who underwent the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedure. An updated MELD based on data from patients awaiting liver transplantation should improve mortality prediction and allocation efficiency.
METHODS:
Wait-list data from adult primary liver transplantation candidates from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network were divided into a model derivation set (2005-2006; n=14,214) and validation set (2007-2008; n=13,945). Cox regression analysis was used to derive and validate an optimized model that updated coefficients and upper and lower bounds for MELD components and included serum levels of sodium. Main outcomes measure was ability to predict 90-day mortality of patients on the liver transplantation wait list.
RESULTS:
Optimized MELD score updated coefficients and implemented new upper and lower bounds for creatinine (0.8 and 3.0 mg/dL, respectively) and international normalized ratio (1 and 3, respectively). Serum sodium concentrations significantly predicted mortality, even after adjusting for the updated MELD model. The final model, based on updated fit of the 4 variables (ie, bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and sodium) had a modest yet statistically significant gain in discrimination (concordance: 0.878 vs 0.865; P<.01) in the validation dataset. Utilization of the new score could affect up to 12% of patients (based on changed score for 459 of 3981 transplants in the validation set).
CONCLUSIONS:
Modification of MELD score to update coefficients, change upper and lower bounds, and incorporate serum sodium levels improved wait-list mortality prediction and should increase efficiency of allocation of donated livers.
- Wiesner R, Edwards E, Freeman R, Harper A, Kim R, Kamath P, Kremers W, Lake J, Howard T, Merion RM, Wolfe RA, Krom R; United Network for Organ Sharing Liver Disease Severity Score Committee. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers. Gastroenterology. 2003 Jan;124(1):91-6. PMID: 12512033.